Red State: Horserace for July 21, 2011

We are bringing this site back to life with an analysis of the Presidential Republican Primary candidates that is now featured on Red State by Erick Erickson.  We will continue to spotlight what candidates are doing in their run for President along with starting to track announced candidates for the US Senate like Ted Cruz from Texas.  We believe that 2012 is going to be an even better Republican year as we take the Senate back along with the White House.  Good analysis by Erickson and we have added our own comments in red to each candidate.

Horserace for July 21, 2011

Posted by Erick Erickson

Thursday, July 21st at 12:36PM EDT

For all intents and purposes, from here on out, we have to presume Rick Perry is a candidate for the Presidency of the United States until he declares otherwise. I think it is safe to conclude he’s in.

As Perry rises, Pawlenty falls as does Bachmann. Cain implodes. Romney stagnates. And then there’s the funny tale of Jon Huntsman. It kind of makes me chuckle. There’s a lot to get into this week in the horserace for the White House.

Michele Bachmann

Michele Bachmann is down again this week.
Let’s be clear. I don’t think the headache story is a big deal. I don’t think it really hurts Bachmann. The story that hurts Bachmann though is that some of her former staffers are a brood of vipers out to get her. I have heard many horror stories myself, but most of what we’re getting now is designed specifically to undermine Bachmann as she continues to gain major momentum. She raised $2 million in a day and that spooked a lot of people.

What we are seeing is what I predicted. The pile on has begun. Given her press operations thus far, I think Bachmann is going to have a tough time staying ahead.

More troubling for Bachmann, she signed the cut, cap, and balance pledge then voted against the related legislation. A number of outside conservative groups who were moving her way now tell me they have pulled back. Her rationale for voting against Cut, Cap, and Balance does not compute after signing the pledge.

Backmann followed the lead of Ron Paul who did not sign the pledge -- she attends his weekly meetings and if anyone paid attention to her questioning to the Fed Chair, it was right out of the Paul playbook.  As to her aides, she has gone through more Chiefs of Staff and aides while in Congress in two plus terms then some go through in ten years which says something about her managing style.  She is totally disorganized and eventually seeing mail stack up would get to anyone.  As for the headaches, no one with that kind of migraine should have even considered running for President when you know you are incapacitated at times.  There is also a problem with her husbands lack of credentials even though he calls himself doctor.

Herman Cain

Herman Cain could have been an awesome candidate. He is a turn around artist. You eat at Burger King because Herman Cain brought it back from the brink. Same with Godfathers. He could have been the outsider’s Mitt Romney with a real record of job growth.

Instead, Cain became the guy who hates Muslims. And now that’s all the press wants to talk about. I don’t know if Cain is just not listening to his advisers or if his advisers are misleading him. But I think the first step for him to turn around his campaign is to fire Mark Block, his top adviser. He needs a dramatic overhaul to prove he is serious and not fringe.

A lot of variables outside of Herman’s control must break his way for him to be viable. He can influence them, but not control them. Right now, they are breaking against him in part because of the influence he is exerting on the variables. He has no path to victory and no more shot at even the Vice Presidency as things are going right now.

The day Herman Cain said he wouldn't sign a bill over 3 or 4 pages showed a total lack of understand of the Office of President and how government works.  Anyone who has followed government knows that budget and appropriation bills are huge as they have to cover everything or an agency won't be able to buy something.  His attacks on Muslims have been over the top and even if people agree with him, most don't want to see that out of a President because it sets us up for another attack and paints all Muslims with the same paintbrush.

Newt Gingrich

Newt Gingrich’s campaign is over. He came out against the McConnell “Pontius Pilate Act”, but was not able to get traction from it. I’m writing off Gingrich’s campaign. When the Speaker of the House who led the GOP through the last major government shutdown is unable to get media attention as Washington is now on the verge of a shutdown, he’s yesterday’s news.

We honestly think he is still in the race as a holding place for Governor Perry.  It is no secret the two are good friends and Newt even wrote the  foreward for the Governor's book, "Fed Up."  Newt's biggest problem is he is a policy wonk which doesn't translate to a lot of support.  Not to mention he traveled and worked with Hillary and Pelosi -- not something that the vast majority of Republicans will overlook.

Jon Huntsman

Jon Huntsman peaked on the day in January Newsweek reported he might be running. Even the day he announced got less press. He has been unable to make headway. Yes, there is plenty of time, but the oxygen has been sucked out of the room.

Even the media that turned him into a darling has started ignoring him. Foreign policy is not the major issue. His backing Obama’s stimulus in 2009 hurts him with the base. Heck, he’s even losing Utah — a state in which he served two terms as Governor.

He can turn it around, but it will be very hard to do. And just today comes word his campaign manager is out. Things are not looking good. Whew!

One question:  Why is he running as a Republican after the 2008 when it seems he was an admirer of Obama and then went to China as the US Ambassador after resigning as Governor of Utah.  No way would he have received that appointment if he had not been in Obama's corner.  Obama doesn't reward anyone who was against him in 2008 because you have to remember Obama saying "I WON!" which set the stage for the problems we are in today along with some of his lackluster appointees not to mention his own short comings as the inexperienced President.

Thaddeus McCotter

I see no reason to keep McCotter on this list unless something changes in the next week.

Another why is he running?

Sarah Palin

Last week I reported that people close to Palin are beginning to change their mind and think she might run. Thus far, there have been no signs that she actually is running and I maintain that she is not going to run. I think Rick Perry getting in keeps Palin out, unless she’s getting in to run interference for Perry.

With her high negative numbers would be foolish to get in the race after saying if the right conservative got in the race she wouldn't run.  Don't think she will run and will endorse Rick Perry.

Ron Paul

Ron Paul will not be the nominee. However, a lot of conservatives are giving Paul, unlike Bachmann, a pass on opposing Cut, Cap, and Balance because he did not sign the CCB pledge and previously pledged to never raise the debt ceiling. It will not, however, help him.

Not going to win and has less support today than in 2008 which was almost nil.

Tim Pawlenty

With Rick Perry presumably getting in, I think the game is almost over for Pawlenty. He did everything right. His polling is headed in the right direction. He has gotten key support. But the slow and steady pace is about to get overshadowed.

However, we should be mindful that Pawlenty is boots on the ground in Iowa and is largely camped out there. He could surprise in a big way and we shouldn’t count him out. It’s great to have a national perspective on this, but we shouldn’t be ignorant of what is happening on the ground. And in Iowa, folks tell me that Pawlenty is being seen plenty. The same people, however, tell me they feel like the oxygen is being sucked out of the room by Bachmann and the anticipation of a Perry run.

Gov Pawlenty has not caught fire like I thought he would.  Will someone please tell me why he hired someone from Romney's campaign in 2008?  He has some great ideas but he does not generate the enthusiasm among a lot of people.  I could support him for President and believe he would be a very good addition to the cabinet of the new President in 2012.

Rick Perry

From here on on, we treat Perry as a candidate. News reports say Perry is meeting with donors and meeting with briefers on national issues. He has a ready supply of funders at his call based on his very successful tenure as head of the Republican Governors Association.

When Perry gets in — it is no longer an if in my book — Bachmann goes down in the polls, Pawlenty’s struggles increase, Gingrich gets out, and Cain is toast. But polling also shows Perry takes votes from Mitt Romney, which must have Governor Romney troubled.

Perry will, immediately upon entry, be the subject of withering attacks he’ll have to survive. I suspect he’ll be able to do it.

Rick Perry has been through the rough and tumble Texas polical scene where they have thrown everything but the kitchen sink and in 2008 some of the backers of Kay Bailey did just that at the request of Bush 41 and his band of KB supporters with Karl Rove getting involved and Mitt Romney endorsing KB.  Can tell Mr. Romney one thing -- Rick Perry will never forget that endorsement of Romney and neither will his supporters.


Perry brings enthusiasm to the campaign that has been missing since it first started way too soon.  The former Aggie yell leader is full of energy and has a family that backs him 100%.  The minute Rick Perry announces excitement will hit the campaign trail.  It will be the 800 lb gorilla land in the race ready to hit the ground running. 


Obama will have an opponent that won't lay down and will confront him on the many issues that have affected not only Texas but a lot of states in Middle America.  Oil and gas people are waiting to write those checks to the Governor in big numbers the way Obama has been after oil and gas.  TX and OK have been in the target zone for the EPA for so long and it has gotten worse under Obama.  This Oklahoman and former resident of Texas is proud to support Rick Perry as are many others I know.

Mitt Romney

The most important issue of the day is the debt ceiling and Mitt Romney is not leading on it as the presumed frontrunner for the GOP. He has played it too safe and refused to be out there aggressively. While Rick Perry is authoring op-eds with Nikki Haley on cut, cap, and balance, Mitt Romney is largely crickets.

Having played it too safe and held on to a lead, I think Romney is going to get hurt. He has a definitely ceiling in support and as other candidates start dropping out, I think they’ll gravitate to others, not Romney.

Not only do I not support Romney, but would have a hard time voting for him as his policies are too liberal and he is too attached to his church no matter what he says.  We have seen first hand how the Church influences elected officials -- no thanks.  His endorsement of Kay Bailey in the 2008 Governor's race makes him a non-starter for me on top of everything else.  Also he was the MA Governor and after living in that state for the longest nine months of my life while my husband was on an Industry Assignment for the Air Force, I would never vote for anyone who was Governor of MA.

Rick Santorum

This will be Rick Santorum’s last appearance in the Horserace. I now consider him a former candidate. 

We agree 100% -- he never caught on as a candidate.

Source:  Red State

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